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TL;DR
US business-sector output rose 10.0% from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the second quarter of 2026, while hours worked increased 0.9%, according to figures cited from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The gap points to faster productivity growth, but it does not show that AI caused it; employment, pay and gains vary across groups and industries.
US business-sector output rose 10.0% from the fourth quarter of 2022 to the second quarter of 2026, while hours worked increased just 0.9%, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data calculated in an analysis published November 1 by ThorstenMeyerAI.com. The figures show productivity rising as the economy expands, but they do not establish that artificial intelligence caused the change or explain how its benefits are being shared.
The latest figures cited in the analysis show US real gross domestic product grew at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter of 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ advance estimate released October 29. That followed a 2.2% annual rate in the second quarter. The BEA said investment, consumer spending and government spending all contributed to third-quarter growth.
For the nonfarm business sector, BLS data show output increased 2.5% over the year to the second quarter of 2026, while hours worked rose 0.2%; productivity, or output per hour, increased 2.2%. The analysis calculates that productivity averaged 2.1% annual growth from the end of 2019 through the second quarter of 2026, compared with 1.5% a year from 2007 to 2019. Those are different measures and periods from the third-quarter GDP estimate.
Employment and wage indicators offer a less even picture. The analysis reports that payrolls increased by 496,000 in the 12 months to September, with health care and social assistance adding 520,000 jobs. Information industries lost 120,000 jobs and remained 12% below their November 2022 peak. It also cites a 52.8% labor share in the second quarter—the lowest in the series beginning in 1947—and a 0.6% annual decline in real private-sector wages to September.
Infographic 01 · More output, same hours
Ten percent more output, almost the same hours
The US business sector produces much more than three years ago with almost no extra work. The new jobs are mostly in health care.
The last 12 months
Nonfarm business sector, Q2 2025 to Q2 2026
- Outputreal, value added+2.5%
- Productivityoutput per hour+2.2%
- Hours workedall workers+0.2%
Where the jobs went
Payroll jobs, change over 12 months to Sep 2026 (preliminary)
Since Q4 2022: output +10.0%, hours +0.9%, productivity +9.1% (my arithmetic from the BLS indexes). Hiring rate in Aug 2026: 3.3% of jobs (2019 average 3.9%); layoff rate 1.0% (2019: 1.2%). Correlation, not proof of cause.
Sources: BLS, Productivity and Costs Q2 2026 (3 Sep 2026) · BLS, Employment Situation Sep 2026 · BLS, JOLTS Aug 2026.
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Productivity Gains, Uneven Payoffs
Productivity matters because it measures how much output an economy produces for each hour worked. Sustained gains can support higher living standards and economic growth without requiring the same increase in labor input. But aggregate productivity does not show who receives the resulting income, whether workers are displaced, or whether new opportunities are being created in the same places and occupations.
The labor-market figures cited in the analysis point to uneven conditions. Overall unemployment was 4.2%, compared with 8.0% for people aged 20 to 24 and 7.0% for Black workers. The analysis says those rates were up from 5.5% and 4.8%, respectively, in April 2023. These comparisons describe different groups’ unemployment rates; they do not by themselves identify the cause of the changes.
For workers and employers, the distinction between output growth and broad-based gains is practical. A company can produce more without expanding its workforce, but the available figures do not say whether that reflects technology, investment, changes in demand, or other business decisions. Nor do national totals reveal how individual workplaces are changing.
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What the Productivity Figures Measure
Productivity is calculated as output divided by hours worked. The BLS nonfarm business-sector measure covers private businesses but excludes farms, government, nonprofits and households. It is not the same as GDP: GDP measures the value of goods and services produced across the economy, while the cited productivity figures apply to a narrower sector and use a different reporting period.
The analysis uses the fourth quarter of 2022 as a reference point because ChatGPT launched on November 30 that year. It calculates the 10.0% output increase and 0.9% rise in hours from BLS indexes. The timing makes the comparison relevant to debate about generative AI, but a before-and-after comparison alone cannot establish that the technology produced the change.
The article also cites reporting on the topic by the Financial Times and The Wall Street Journal, while saying it could access only the FT column’s headline and summary and the WSJ headline. Its calculations and discussion rely on official data from the BLS, BEA, Census Bureau, Federal Reserve and Eurostat rather than claims about the full contents of those paywalled pieces.
AI’s Role Is Not Established
The productivity figures do not isolate AI’s contribution. The analysis says that only about one in four US businesses reported using AI at all in early October, citing Census Bureau data. It also notes that technology-sector jobs began shrinking before generative AI was in widespread business use. Neither point rules out an AI effect, but both complicate a simple causal explanation.
Other explanations for higher output per hour may include investment in computers and software, changes in the mix of industries, business restructuring, or shifts in demand. The article says computers and software accounted for about a third of third-quarter growth, much of it associated with AI investment, but that attribution does not show how much output or productivity was caused by AI itself.
The figures also leave open how broadly gains are reaching workers. The cited labor-share and real-wage measures indicate pressure, while payroll growth and unemployment vary across sectors and demographic groups. The data presented do not establish why those measures moved or how much of the change reflects inflation, industry composition or other factors.
Watch Upcoming Jobs and Productivity Data
The next evidence will come from later releases of employment, wage, productivity and business-adoption data. Repeated observations can show whether the gap between output and hours persists, whether productivity growth spreads beyond particular industries, and whether hiring and real pay improve alongside output.
Business-use surveys can help track how widely companies report adopting AI, but adoption figures alone will not measure its effect on productivity or jobs. Researchers would need evidence that separates AI’s contribution from investment, demand and other changes. Until then, the strongest supported conclusion is narrower: output has grown much faster than hours worked over the period cited, while the cause and distribution of the gains remain unsettled.
Key Questions
What do the US output and hours figures show?
From the fourth quarter of 2022 to the second quarter of 2026, business-sector output rose 10.0% and hours worked rose 0.9%, based on BLS indexes calculated in the analysis. The figures imply faster output per hour over that period.
Do the figures prove AI is increasing productivity?
No. The timing overlaps with the spread of generative AI, but the figures do not isolate AI’s effect from other influences such as investment, demand or changes in business activity.
Is the economy growing?
The BEA’s advance estimate said real GDP grew at a 3.4% annual rate in the third quarter of 2026. GDP growth and the BLS productivity figures cover different measures and periods.
Are jobs and wages sharing in the gains?
The picture in the cited figures is mixed. Payrolls increased by 496,000 in the year to September, but job growth differed by industry; the analysis also reports a 0.6% annual fall in real private-sector wages and a lower labor share.
Source: ThorstenMeyerAI.com
