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TL;DR
Intel shares fell about 29% on Oct. 30, 2026, after the company forecast fourth-quarter revenue and margins below analyst expectations, despite reporting strong third-quarter growth. The U.S. government’s Intel stake lost about $12 billion in market value that day, but its shares remain worth substantially more than the government paid.
Intel shares fell about 29% on Friday, Oct. 30, after the chipmaker forecast fourth-quarter revenue and gross margins below analyst expectations, wiping roughly $12 billion from the market value of the U.S. government’s stake in the company in a single day. The decline came despite Intel reporting a strong quarter, with data-center and AI revenue up 78% year over year.
Intel closed at $65.76 on Friday, down from $92.07 on Thursday, according to the figures reported by Yahoo Finance. The drop erased nearly $140 billion in Intel’s total market value, according to Yahoo Finance’s calculation. The outlet’s historical comparison, based on closing prices dating to May 1973, found only one worse day: July 5, 1974, when the stock fell nearly 30%. CNBC also described Friday’s fall as Intel’s worst since the 1970s.
The immediate trigger was Intel’s forecast, not its latest reported quarter. Revenue for the three months through September was $16.5 billion, up 21% from a year earlier and above the company’s guidance. Adjusted earnings were 52 cents per share, compared with Intel’s forecast of 38 cents; adjusted gross margin was 44.1%, about two percentage points above its guidance.
For the October-to-December quarter, however, Intel projected revenue of $15 billion to $16 billion. The midpoint is below the $17.1 billion analysts expected, according to LSEG data cited by CNBC. Intel forecast adjusted earnings of 25 cents per share, versus an analyst expectation of 43 cents, and an adjusted gross margin of 38%, down from 44.1% in the reported quarter.
The government’s position illustrates how a sharp share-price move can affect a large public investment without wiping out its gains. The U.S. holds 433.3 million Intel shares, acquired at $20.47 each for a total of about $8.9 billion, according to the source material. At Thursday’s close the holding was worth about $39.9 billion; at Friday’s close it was about $28.5 billion. That is a one-day decline of roughly $12 billion in market value, but the stake was still worth more than three times its purchase cost.
Infographic 01 · One day, one stake
One trading day cost Washington more than it paid
Intel's stock fell about 29% on Friday after a weak forecast. Here is what that did to the shares the US government bought in August 2025, and how the price compares with what other buyers paid.
The government’s stake, on paper
433.3 million shares × price
- PaidAug 2025, at $20.47 a share$8.9B
- Thursday's close29 Oct 2026, $92.07$39.9B
- Friday's close30 Oct 2026, $65.76$28.5B
The one-day loss (about $11.4B) was larger than the $8.9B the government paid. The stake is still worth roughly three times its cost.
What different buyers paid per share
Red line: Friday’s close, $65.76
- US governmentAug 2025 · 433.3M shares$20.47
- SoftBankSep 2025 · 87M shares$23.00
- Nvidiaagreed Sep 2025 · 215M shares$23.28
- Public offeringAug 2026 · about 242M shares$95.00
2025 buyers are far above water; buyers of the August 2026 offering are about 31% below their price (my arithmetic).
Market prices as reported by Yahoo Finance and CNBC for 29–30 October 2026; no licensed price feed. Stake values: Yahoo Finance’s arithmetic with 433.3 million shares. Purchase prices from Intel’s 10-Q and the August 2025 agreement.
Sources: Yahoo Finance, 30 Oct · Yahoo Finance (stake), 30 Oct · CNBC, 30 Oct · Intel 10-Q, 30 Oct · Intel 8-K, 22 Aug 2025.
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A forecast reshapes the government stake
The sell-off shows that investors are weighing Intel’s expected performance more heavily than its strong latest quarter. The reported growth in AI-related demand has not yet resolved the company’s production constraints or its exposure to a weaker PC market. The lower forecast points to pressure on near-term revenue and profitability even as one business tied to data centers expands quickly.
For Washington, the fall is a substantial paper loss on the value of its Intel holding, not evidence that the government has sold shares or realized a loss. The value can move again with Intel’s stock price. The stake also makes Intel’s business outlook a matter of public financial interest, though the provided information does not establish what effect the government’s ownership has on company decisions.
For businesses and consumers, the reported pressure on memory supplies could feed into higher PC prices and reduced demand. Intel said the AI data-center buildout is increasing demand for memory, while its own PC-chip revenue fell. Those forces connect spending on AI infrastructure with costs in the broader computer market, though the source material does not quantify how much of any PC price increase is attributable to memory.
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AI demand meets PC and factory limits
Intel’s third-quarter results showed sharply different trends across its businesses. Data Center and AI revenue reached $7.3 billion, up from $4.1 billion a year earlier, and the segment reported $3 billion in operating profit. Intel described the growth as its strongest for the segment in 15 years. By contrast, revenue from PC chips fell 5% year over year.
The company’s account of the outlook points to a tension within the AI boom: demand for server processors is increasing, but Intel says it cannot make enough of them to meet customer needs. At the same time, AI data centers are drawing heavily on memory supplies, contributing to higher memory prices. Intel chief executive Lip-Bu Tan said that “year-to-date system end-point prices have increased significantly.” The company expects PC-chip revenue to fall by more than 20% from the third quarter to the fourth, according to the source material.
Intel also cited a deadly accident at its factory in Israel as a factor expected to reduce fourth-quarter revenue by about $300 million. That production disruption adds to the demand and cost pressures, but the available account does not provide further details about the incident or its effects on workers and operations.
The government acquired its stake in August 2025 using chip-grant funds that had been promised to Intel, according to the source material. Intel shares then rose sharply during 2026, reaching a record on June 22 before falling. Even after Friday’s drop, they remained nearly 80% higher for the year, while sitting more than halfway below that peak, based on Yahoo Finance’s calculations.
““Not fixed yet.””
— D.A. Davidson, according to CNBC
Supply, demand and recovery remain open
Intel’s forecast does not establish how long the memory-price squeeze will last or when it can make enough server processors to satisfy demand. The supplied material also does not quantify how much of the projected revenue decline comes from lower PC demand, constrained server-chip production, the factory accident, or other factors.
It remains unclear whether the company can attract enough outside customers to use its manufacturing facilities at a scale that improves its finances. Intel’s finance chief warned that positive free cash flow next year is unlikely, but the source material gives no more detailed timeline or conditions for a return to positive cash flow. The government stake’s future market value is also uncertain and will move with Intel shares; Friday’s decline alone does not indicate a realized government loss.
Watch Intel’s next operating milestones
The next near-term test is Intel’s fourth-quarter performance against its $15 billion-to-$16 billion revenue forecast and its projected 38% adjusted gross margin. Results will show whether the weaker outlook was borne out and whether the effects of memory costs, PC demand and production constraints developed as the company expected.
Investors and customers will also be watching whether Intel can increase server-chip output and win outside customers for its factories. The company has identified those areas, along with the duration of the memory squeeze, as factors shaping its outlook. The supplied source does not give dates for additional production or customer milestones, so those developments remain to be tracked through company updates and subsequent results.
Key Questions
Why did Intel shares fall despite a strong quarter?
Investors focused on Intel’s fourth-quarter forecast. Its projected revenue midpoint of $15.5 billion was below the $17.1 billion analysts expected, and its projected adjusted gross margin fell to 38% from 44.1% in the reported quarter.
How much did the U.S. government’s Intel stake lose in value?
The holding’s market value fell from about $39.9 billion to $28.5 billion between Thursday and Friday’s closes, a decline of roughly $12 billion. These are market-value estimates, not a reported sale or realized loss.
Is the government’s investment still above its purchase price?
Yes. The government paid about $8.9 billion for 433.3 million shares at $20.47 each. At Friday’s close, the stake was valued at about $28.5 billion, according to the source material.
How is AI demand affecting Intel’s businesses differently?
Intel’s Data Center and AI revenue rose 78% year over year, while PC-chip revenue fell 5%. The company says data-center demand is increasing pressure on memory supplies and that it cannot make enough server processors to meet demand.
What should readers watch next?
Key indicators include whether Intel meets its fourth-quarter forecast, whether it can increase server-chip production, how long memory prices remain elevated, and whether outside customers sign up for its factories. Intel’s finance chief has also warned that positive free cash flow next year is unlikely.
Source: ThorstenMeyerAI.com
